Italy slashes GDP forecasts as Trump’s trade war looms
The Bank of Italy cut its GDP forecasts "above all" due to the "tightening of trade policies": the +0.8% forecast last December for 2025 drops to +0.6%, while for 2026 the estimate of +1.1% drops to 0.8% and in 2027 from +0.9% to +0.7%.
The Bank of Italy emphasized that the method gives estimates on seasonally adjusted data and corrected for the number of working days; without this correction, GDP would grow by 0.5% in 2025, 0.9% in 2026 and 0.7% in 2027, CE Report quotes ANSA.
The forecasts, it said, include "a first and partial evaluation" of US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs, but do not consider possible retaliation or the evolution of international markets.
